Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
